What a time to be FX. The Disney subsidiary has produced the most critically lauded television of the moment. It’s rolling into the Emmys with a juggernaut called Shōgun, a deluxe retelling of James Clavell from Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks. Last weekend, the drama crushed all comers by taking 14 Creative Arts Emmys. Now onto this Sunday’s main event, where the show will duke it out in the headline categories. Before the curtain rises at the Peacock Theater, Shōgun has already won more Emmys than any series after a single season.
FX also has The Bear, a frontrunner in the comedy slots. Christopher Storer’s kitchen melodrama isn’t a laugh riot, but its second season was even more acclaimed than the first (its third outing is another story). The show is destined for another big night.
What accounts for all that glory? Show quality matters, but FX’s entrants don’t have much competition. HBO, the legendary awards magnet rebranded in streaming as Max, is sagging. Netflix has volume but can’t reliably crack appointment television (at this point, it feels as if The Crown took its final bow in 1973). The tech spawn — Apple TV + and Prime—spend millions on glossy fare that’s not gelling with audiences.
No shade to fine people who slave away on worthy projects, but on bad days, Hollywood feels like Detroit with palm trees, cranking out flashy models average consumers don’t want to drive. The product is expensive, and new drivers are thin on the ground. The silver lining is that global audiences are still eager to be entertained.
This year’s Emmys are a transitional moment, between the doldrums and dreams for something better. To make the most of it, Hollywood needs to reach beyond hipness and make big swings for mass appeal—on platforms where viewers now spend the most time. If it is serious about survival, the entertainment industry must leverage its enormous creativity and fight for broad relevance.
Yours Ever,
Marcello Rubini and Sarah Brown
Drama Series
The Crown (Netflix)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (Max)
The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Shōgun (FX)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)**
3 Body Problem (Netflix)
Our favorite in this slot is Apple’s cracking Slow Horses, but that show burbles under the radar (look for it to get love next time). If Shōgun somehow falls to Mr. and Mrs. Smith or The Crown, the room will gasp. Safe money stays on the samurai —M.R.
Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (Max)
Hacks (Max)***
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (Apple TV+)
Reservation Dogs (FX)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Bear backlash seems to be a thing, but it’s too late to catch up with the show this year. In the outside lane, there’s Max’s Hacks, an underappreciated gem. Another FX entrant, Reservation Dogs, ends its run without getting the laurels it deserved.—S.B.
Limited Series
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+)
Ripley (Netflix)
True Detective: Night Country (Max)***
Richard Gadd’s fictionalized account of being stalked by a disturbed woman was a viral hit for Netflix (and the subject of a lawsuit). It should glide to victory. We’re all for True Detective: Night Country, the finest installment of a great HBO series, and Ripley has its boosters. But the reindeer are trotting away with this one. —S.B.
TV Movie
Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie (Peacock)
Quiz Lady (Hulu)
Red, White, and Royal Blue (Prime Video)
Scoop (Netflix)
Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story (Netflix)
This category is always a mixed bag. The only sane choice is Philip Martin’s dramatization of Prince Andrew's 2019 interview about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, which starred Rufus Sewell as the scandal-plagued Windsor and Gillian Anderson as BBC journo Emily Maitlis. —S.B.
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)***
Anna Sawai, Shōgun (FX)
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Maya Erskine Mr and Mrs. Smiths (Prime)
Imelda Staunton ), The Crown (Netflix)
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
This Emmy should go to Sawai, the clear frontrunner. Still, voters could trim Shōgun’s sails in the acting categories. if so, the statuette will go to Coon, who overcomes corsets and bustles as a ruthless dowager in The Gilded Age.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shōgun (FX)
Idris Elba Hijack (AppleTV +)
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime)
Walton Goggins, Fallout (Prime)
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV +). ***
Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)
We see a slim chance of an upset here, with Oldman edging Shōgun’s Sanada. He’s having the time of his life playing a disheveled spy in Horses, but enthusiasm for his performance might not be rewarded for another year. The Japanese actor’s turn as the calculating Lord Toranaga remains the overwhelming favorite.
Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (HBO/Max)
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
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